Thanks!

Good to hear from you.

I to have concerns about the negative impact of inflation (high interest rates), but I think inflation will be a negative side effect of central banks and national governments successfully reflating economies around the world. (I had this exact conversation with a client this morning)

If and when inflation kicks off, there will be more demand in the world economy (inflation is just excess demand) caused by more than just low interest rates. People will be in work and business will be making money because the world economy should be out of recession, by the time rates begin to rise.

Leverage – Most of the people I am working with (mostly principal residence buyers as of Spring ’09) are not highly leveraged. Most (70%+) are low ratio and some are not getting mortgages. I think if go way up I think the people I am working with should be able to manage.

Good to hear things are good in your business. I like a strong Canadian $. Its good for the West and good for Vancouver AND its good for me when I go on vacation!

I understand that we are moving towards parity more because of US$ weakness rather than C$ strength. How is the C$ doing vis a vis the rest of the world?

I suppose my concern for many people is the interest rate factor opposed to the prices of property. Rates are low but can not remain so after June of 2010. We may not see the rates of the early 80′s when people were renewing there mortgages at 18% but could you imagine even having to renew at 9%? Many many people will lose there homes and who’s going to want to purchase… I saw your blog on this topic and certainly you have a point about rents going up in that environment but its the people who are leveraged on there principle residence that will be the concern.

I too can’t imagine doing anything else for the time being. I enjoy coming to work every day as each day is never the same and many days are a rush.

Canadian $ will likely hit parity by year end. We are commodity driven in Canada and we will do a lot of exporting of these materials to countries that import as we come out of this recession. This does not affect us as we work on both sides of the market (buy and sell) and all the currencies. My industry is recession proof to an extent.

Thanks for taking the time to comment! Also thanks for the kind words about my blog.

I would say you may be seeing 2005 pricing for some suites now. 2703-939 Expo Blvd is a perfect example. This was my listing and I sold it in June 2007 for $667K. The people I sold it for bought the suite for $576K in December ’05. It is now listed for $589K in June ’09.

Another thing. The market here in Vancouver is quite hot at the moment, which completely kills the more bearish commentators arguments. Low rates coupled with corrected prices have brought buyers out in force. In May ’09 I had the best month of my career.

I love markets and working in them for exactly this reason. You can never tell whats going to happen and its never dull. Scary sometimes, but always a rush!

What are your thoughts Dave?

How are the forex markets? I was reading that the Canadian Dollar is on its way back to parity. How does that affect your business?

First time to this page and pleasantly surprised to see a realtor with an education who seems to be humble yet intelligent.

As a currency trader I am inundated with ALL economic information on a daily basis from around the globe. I need this info as I trade most of the worlds currencies and like you all my clients ask where is the $ going. Short term to me is an hour and long term is a week. A lot can happen in 6 months or a year. For the most part your right that no one can predict a market bottom or top, it is all a guess. However some people will make an “educated” guess while others with too much emotion and attachment will also make the attempt.

The Vancouver real estate market will reach 2005 price levels. When? I don’t know, as I said I can’t see the future but rather rely on the economic information at hand. (although my prediction with my realtor was June of 2010 and I did put my money where my mouth was in a small bet just for fun)

A realtor is in a tough spot, the biggest asset they have is… There home? There employment? Maybe both and this is why this is a frightening subject for them. They have very little diversification as a result, everything depends on this market.

No worries though, if you take a look at one of the worst hit markets in California and did some research you would see that even though prices have fallen significantly for the last few years, 2008 had the highest $ figure of sales. Meaning prices are dropping drastically yet more inventory has moved than ever before.

We are not Japan for all the reasons you stated and a few more but there are other factors that will come into play. Lagging indicators such as unemployment will continue for example. Yeild curves are the best place to look and as much as the goverment tries to help narrow those margins they have never been successfull long term. Yes you are busy writing deals in multiple offer situations. There were 18000 realtors in 2007, how many still remain? Less competition, more work for those of you who rode it out. This is what the market does, it is forming a “right shoulder” It is spring leading into summer and you will continue to be busy (hopefully) but then I would say take the family for a vacation cause your not going to be missing much come fall.

On another note if you buy and hold, who cares. We all need to live somewhere.

Regards

Good to hear from you and thank you for taking the time to comment.

I have to respectfully disagree with the following “There is an over supply of properties and an undersupply of people making wages that can afford said property.”

Its 7:20 pm and I’m still at the office waiting for the second offer (supposed to be ready at 8:45) in a multiple offer situation on one of my listings. I don’t expect to be out of here anytime soon as I have to catch up work I didn’t get to last week, because I was so busy putting deals together. (May has been the best month of the year for me)

Its busy because people have confidence in the Vancouver real estate market, prices are reasonable, and money is cheaper than it ever has. There are lots of buyers out there (my listing at 1888 York Street had over 60 people through the Open House on Saturday) and there is a distinct shortage of listings (Everything I call on for buyers is sold!)

Its going to be a hot summer.

What are your thoughts?

Moral of the story is you won’t need to be in any hurry to buy right now, unless you believe interest rates are going to rise as this will bankrupt a lot of people. The economy is going to take a long time to improve, prices will continue to fall.

i don’t have a crystal ball either.. there are numerous possibilities that can occur

Yaaaa!!! Congrats on the great score!

Glad to hear you did well! Thanks for sharing your paper, it was great!

Keep in touch and let me know if you need anything.

Thanks!

M